Greenwich, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

499
FXUS61 KOKX 020630
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
130 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gales have been downgraded to Small Craft Advisories.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry and cold thru Thursday.

2) An arctic front will bring a chance for light snow Friday
and another shot of frigid air for the weekend.

3) Brief minor tidal flooding for this morning`s high tide cycle for
a few areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cold this week with temps generally remaining blw freezing. The
Cold Weather Advy remains in effect for this mrng for Orange and
Putnam counties, but temps/chills are mrgnl. No advisories for
temps will be needed thru the day on Fri. There could be a few
flurries or shsn Tue ngt with an upr trof passing thru the area.
Worst case scenario would be a dusting in some spots.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Low pres and the associated arctic front drop down out of Canada
and reach the area on Fri. SW flow ahead of the low into the
already cold airmass should produce some snow - mainly light.
After the passing of the front, shsn possible with steep lapse
rates on Sat. The front will usher in frigid temps for the
weekend, with wind chills below zero all areas Fri night, then
at least 10-20 below for Sat ngt. 45-50kt winds at h85 could
produce nwly gusts around wind advy criteria on Sat as well.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Given a continued offshore flow and observed levels falling short of
guidance for the past high tide cycle or two, anticipating isolated
to scattered instances of flooding thresholds being just met or
slightly exceeded with this morning`s high tide cycle. Impacts
limited to Southern Nassau and Southern Queens where a coastal flood
statement remains posted. No flooding concerns thereafter for the
rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong low pressure well offshore continues to track northeast into
the Northern Atlantic today as high pressure gradually builds in
from the west.

VFR.

NNW to NW flow 10-15kt. Gusts 20-25kt until 07-08z east of the city
terminals, but also impacting the city terminals to a lesser extent.
Gusts 16-20kt return after the morning push and end late day/early
evening.


 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts before 07z may be only occasional. Start time of gusts after
the morning push could be off by and hour two, and may be only
occasional.

Winds prevail north/right of 310 magnetic for most of the TAF
period, but could be south/left of it at times from approx 22-03z
this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late tonight-Thursday: VFR, but a low chance of MVFR and light snow
Tuesday night.

Friday: MVFR or lower with a chance of snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
NW winds today gradually decreasing. A SCA remains in effect for
all areas, ending first this mrng on the protected waters as
winds diminish, then by Tue mrng on the ocean as waves subside.
Areas of light freezing spray can be expected today.

Winds and seas are modeled to remain blw SCA lvls Tue thru Thu.

An arctic front will bring strengthening winds and building seas
on Fri, with gales possible Fri ngt thru Sat. Freezing spray
could be mdt-hvy at times this weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ067-
     068.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC/JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC